Post by Admin on Jul 24, 2021 10:14:42 GMT -6
Originally posted as 3 separate posts on July 7, 2020
The concept of these posts was to put 2 factually correct posts out with different spins from the same poster and then talk about them in a 3rd post trying to explain the spin we were seeing across the country at that time.
Post #1:
The time has come for Texas to shut down again.
With cases on the rise and now deaths following them on that trend, there is no way to reverse it all and SAVE LIVES unless we go back on full lockdown. Daily new cases are up 7-8 times where they were when we were in the midst of the lockdown (April) and the two highest days on record just posted with more than 1000 cases more per day than any other single day so far!! The moving 7-day average for daily deaths has never been higher than right now and the 2 highest death totals were posted, once again, in the last 2 days! Not only that, but yesterday’s death total was 81% higher than the current 7-day average!! That’s almost double!! How long will it be before the average moves right up there with it?! Masks aren’t enough, reversing back to our hermit ways from April is the only responsible way to move forward.
Post #2:
Texas should go back to business as usual already.
With freedom on the rise, we are seeing an upward trend of both cases and deaths in recent days. The increase in cases can be mostly explained by the increase in testing. Through mid-May Texas was testing about 15k people per day. Since the end of June, that value is closer to 55k people per day, a 3-4x increase. Naturally, we are also seeing an increase in cases from 1200 per day in mid-May to about 7000 per day in July. That’s a 5-6x increase . . . but don’t forget that we also went from locked down to freedom . . . so there shouldn’t be a perfect correlation. We should expect cases to approximately double. We should also expect deaths to approximately double, which is exactly what we are seeing. Deaths in May were around 30 per day and swooped down as low as 20 through June. Now the moving average is showing 45-50 deaths per day in a state with nearly 30 million people. The rate has doubled, but the raw value is still extremely low! So yes, the spread of the virus has increased as we came out of lockdown, but remember, the reason for the lockdown in the first place was to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed and causing unnecessary deaths, not to make sure that NO ONE dies at all. We have achieved that and the data shows that upticks seen are within expected parameters. It is time to take off the shackles and get back to normal across the board.
Post #3:
So what's the truth?
In regard to my previous two posts . . . please note that everything in each of them is as factual as I can make it, but remember that that statistics can be used to tell any story that someone wants to make them say. It's just a matter of looking for data that fits your narrative.
The truth is likely somewhere in the middle. The new cases and deaths can be explained and the total magnitude of the values is not a scary number, but wearing masks in public and practicing social distancing are still good ideas. I am not sure that reversing the openings is warranted, but that is my opinion and it is not shared by those with the power.
I guess my real point is to make sure that you are informed and remember that often, and especially in cases like this, there are no wrong opinions and be kind to those that have opposing views. Each of us can decide how we want to move forward in this world within the guidelines that the government is allowing us. Eventually, we will get back to normal and I can't wait for that time.
I hope you found my trio of posts interesting. Thanks for reading!
The concept of these posts was to put 2 factually correct posts out with different spins from the same poster and then talk about them in a 3rd post trying to explain the spin we were seeing across the country at that time.
Post #1:
The time has come for Texas to shut down again.
With cases on the rise and now deaths following them on that trend, there is no way to reverse it all and SAVE LIVES unless we go back on full lockdown. Daily new cases are up 7-8 times where they were when we were in the midst of the lockdown (April) and the two highest days on record just posted with more than 1000 cases more per day than any other single day so far!! The moving 7-day average for daily deaths has never been higher than right now and the 2 highest death totals were posted, once again, in the last 2 days! Not only that, but yesterday’s death total was 81% higher than the current 7-day average!! That’s almost double!! How long will it be before the average moves right up there with it?! Masks aren’t enough, reversing back to our hermit ways from April is the only responsible way to move forward.
Post #2:
Texas should go back to business as usual already.
With freedom on the rise, we are seeing an upward trend of both cases and deaths in recent days. The increase in cases can be mostly explained by the increase in testing. Through mid-May Texas was testing about 15k people per day. Since the end of June, that value is closer to 55k people per day, a 3-4x increase. Naturally, we are also seeing an increase in cases from 1200 per day in mid-May to about 7000 per day in July. That’s a 5-6x increase . . . but don’t forget that we also went from locked down to freedom . . . so there shouldn’t be a perfect correlation. We should expect cases to approximately double. We should also expect deaths to approximately double, which is exactly what we are seeing. Deaths in May were around 30 per day and swooped down as low as 20 through June. Now the moving average is showing 45-50 deaths per day in a state with nearly 30 million people. The rate has doubled, but the raw value is still extremely low! So yes, the spread of the virus has increased as we came out of lockdown, but remember, the reason for the lockdown in the first place was to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed and causing unnecessary deaths, not to make sure that NO ONE dies at all. We have achieved that and the data shows that upticks seen are within expected parameters. It is time to take off the shackles and get back to normal across the board.
Post #3:
So what's the truth?
In regard to my previous two posts . . . please note that everything in each of them is as factual as I can make it, but remember that that statistics can be used to tell any story that someone wants to make them say. It's just a matter of looking for data that fits your narrative.
The truth is likely somewhere in the middle. The new cases and deaths can be explained and the total magnitude of the values is not a scary number, but wearing masks in public and practicing social distancing are still good ideas. I am not sure that reversing the openings is warranted, but that is my opinion and it is not shared by those with the power.
I guess my real point is to make sure that you are informed and remember that often, and especially in cases like this, there are no wrong opinions and be kind to those that have opposing views. Each of us can decide how we want to move forward in this world within the guidelines that the government is allowing us. Eventually, we will get back to normal and I can't wait for that time.
I hope you found my trio of posts interesting. Thanks for reading!